UPDATE 2-US natgas futures jump 7% on rising flows to LNG export plants

(Adds latest prices) March 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 7% on Monday on forecasts for demand to rise next week with the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants on track to hit a record high for the month. Prices jumped despite a 5% drop in crude futures earlier in the day and forecasts for less cold weather over the next two weeks than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for April delivery rose 17.6 cents, or 7.2%, to settle at $2.606 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest since Feb. 23. Oil prices fell on Monday along with equities as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank raised fears of a fresh financial crisis. The gas market has been extremely volatile in recent weeks as traders bet on the latest weather forecasts. The front-month fell to a 28-month low below $2 per mmBtu in intraday trade on Feb. 22 on forecasts for warmer weather before jumping 9% to settle at a five-week high above $3 just over a week later on March 3 on forecasts for colder weather. It plunged 15% on March 6 on an outlook for warmer temperatures. Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas was on track to pull in 1.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas on Monday, up from 0.7 bcfd on Sunday, according to data provider Refinitiv. The plant exited an eight-month outage in February caused by a fire in June 2022. When operating at full power, Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export. Federal regulators approved the restart of two of Freeport LNG's three liquefaction trains (Trains 2 and 3) in February and the third train (Train 1) on March 8. Liquefaction trains turn gas into LNG. Total gas flows to all seven of the big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.1 bcfd so far in March from 12.8 bcfd in February. That would top the monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March 2022, before the Freeport LNG facility shut. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.8 bcfd so far in March from 98.2 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. Analysts said production declined earlier this year due in part to gas price declines of 40% in January and 35% in December that persuaded several energy firms to reduce the number of rigs they were using to drill for gas. In addition, extreme cold in early February and late December cut gas output by freezing oil and gas wells in several producing basins. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through March 28 except for a few near-normal days from March 23-25. That forecast, however, was less cold than previously expected. Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 119.8 bcfd this week to 120.4 bcfd next week with power generators expected to burn more gas to produce electricity and the amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants expected to rise. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. Milder winter weather so far this year has prompted utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual. Gas stockpiles were about 22% above their five-year average (2018-2022) during the week ended March 3 and were expected to end about 24% above normal during the week ended March 10, according to federal data and analysts' estimates. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Mar 10 Mar 3 Mar 10 average (Forecast) (Actual) Mar 10 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -60 -84 -86 -74 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 1,970 2,030 1,451 1,594 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 23.6% 21.5% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 2.47 2.43 4.98 6.54 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 16.09 14.44 41.81 40.50 14.39 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 14.16 14.31 36.96 34.11 14.31 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 315 332 238 266 269 U.S. GFS CDDs 8 9 12 17 14 U.S. GFS TDDs 323 331 250 283 283 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 98.8 99.0 99.1 93.3 89.4 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.8 7.8 7.8 9.2 8.6 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 106.5 106.7 107.0 102.5 99.1 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.0 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.2 U.S. LNG Exports 13.2 13.1 13.3 12.7 7.4 U.S. Commercial 12.7 13.8 13.6 12.2 12.4 U.S. Residential 20.2 21.9 21.8 18.6 19.6 U.S. Power Plant 30.9 30.9 31.3 25.1 25.7 U.S. Industrial 23.6 24.3 24.5 23.2 23.6 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 94.8 98.5 98.9 86.7 88.9 Total U.S. Demand 116.6 119.8 120.4 108.4 104.5 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Mar 17 Mar 10 Mar 3 Feb 24 Feb 17 Wind 16 12 13 15 15 Solar 3 3 3 3 3 Hydro 7 7 7 7 7 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 37 41 40 39 37 Coal 16 16 15 14 15 Nuclear 20 20 20 20 21 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.40 2.50 Transco Z6 New York 2.40 2.46 PG&E Citygate 6.37 6.87 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 2.24 2.34 Chicago Citygate 2.40 2.52 Algonquin Citygate 2.82 2.75 SoCal Citygate 5.93 7.30 Waha Hub 1.36 1.53 AECO 2.15 2.23 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 41.25 35.50 PJM West 27.50 37.00 Ercot North 19.75 29.00 Mid C 68.00 65.00 Palo Verde 40.25 41.00 SP-5 69.50 75.25 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Emelia Sithole-Matarise; Editing by Richard Chang)