Three things the NCAA tournament selection committee got right and wrong
The NCAA tournament selection committee unveiled this year’s bracket on Sunday evening. Here’s a look at three things it got right and three it got wrong.
What it got right: The No. 1 seeds.
When Duke won four games in four days in Brooklyn to capture the ACC tournament title on Saturday night, many anointed the Blue Devils a threat to earn a No. 1 seed. They had eight RPI Top 25 wins and 13 RPI Top 50 wins, more than any team in the nation, and a 2-1 head-to-head record against North Carolina, which was also in contention for a No. 1 seed.
Credit the committee for keeping it simple and sticking with the Tar Heels as the ACC’s lone No. 1 seed. North Carolina, the league’s outright regular season champion, finished three games ahead of Duke in the standings, lost one fewer regular season game and had just two fewer Top 50 victories than the Blue Devils did.
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The committee also made the right choice anointing one-loss Gonzaga (32-1) as the No. 1 seed in the West instead of Pac-12 regular season and tournament champion Arizona (30-4). The Wildcats may have played in a stronger league, but the Zags had the same number of RPI top 50 wins, three fewer losses and a head-to-head neutral-court victory over Arizona, albeit without sophomore star Allonzo Trier.
There wasn’t enough evidence to vault Duke over a team that finished three games ahead of it in its league standings or Arizona ahead of a team that nearly completed an undefeated regular season. North Carolina and Gonzaga were the correct picks to join Villanova and Kansas on the top seed line.
What it got wrong: Wichita State was grossly undervalued
They made the Final Four in 2013 as a No. 9 seed. They reached the Sweet 16 in 2015 as a No. 7 seed. They won two more NCAA tournament games last year as a No. 11 seed.
No matter what Wichita State accomplishes each March, the selection committee never fails to undervalue the Shockers again the following year.
It happened again Sunday when the committee awarded Wichita State a No. 10 seed as a result of its dearth of quality wins. The Shockers assembled an aggressive non-conference schedule featuring five games against name-brand opponents, but they lost to Louisville, Michigan State and Oklahoma State and only managed to beat rebuilding Oklahoma and woeful LSU.
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What the committee essentially ignored was the manner in which Wichita State ripped through the rest of its schedule, winning 20 of 21 games against league opponents by an average of 21.5 points apiece. The Shockers’ margin of victory is the biggest reason they’re ranked eighth in the nation in the Ken Pomeroy ratings, maybe the most accurate predictive tool college basketball has.
Assessing Wichita State (30-4) was always going to be a challenge since the Shockers’ traditional resume and advanced metrics don’t align, but the committee could have done a far better job splitting the difference. Ignoring Wichita State’s top 10 KenPom ranking — or even its No. 29 RPI — will penalize not only the Shockers but also opponents unlucky enough to draw them.
Oddsmakers anointed seventh-seeded Dayton as a 6.5-point underdog against Wichita State in the opening round. That’s on the selection committee for not taking a more nuanced approach.
What it got right: The bubble
If the most controversial teams excluded from the NCAA tournament were Syracuse and Illinois State, then the committee did an excellent job evaluating the bubble teams. Neither the Orange nor the Redbirds had a stronger case to make the field than did any of the last at-large teams selected.
Even though Syracuse (18-14) boasted one of the strongest collections of marquee wins of any bubble team, victories over Duke, Virginia, Florida State and Miami weren’t enough to offset the other flaws in its resume. The Orange went just 2-11 away from the Carrier Dome this season and suffered six losses to teams that failed to make the NCAA tournament, a list that includes a dreadful 33-point drubbing from St. John’s and a terrible road loss at Boston College.
Illinois State (27-6) hadn’t lost to anyone besides Wichita State since December, but the best team it has beaten besides the Shockers is New Mexico, which isn’t even likely to make the NIT. When you only have two top 125 RPI wins, you have to be almost perfect to make the NCAA tournament, but the Redbirds lost to the likes of San Francisco, Tulsa and Murray State in non-conference play.
All four of the last at-large teams selected have flawed resumes too, from Kansas State’s sub-.500 Big 12 record, to Wake Forest’s 3-10 record against top 50 opponents, to USC’s 11 victories over teams rated 200th or worse in the RPI. But all four have accomplished enough this season to have better arguments than either Syracuse or Illinois State.
What it got wrong: South Carolina was grossly overvalued
There’s only one reasonable explanation for the generous treatment South Carolina received from the committee in this year’s bracket.
Maybe the committee felt guilty about its surprise exclusion of the Gamecocks last season and wanted to make it up to them.
How else can one explain South Carolina not only landing two or three seed lines better than anticipated but also getting a chance to play its opening-weekend games only a 90-minute drive from campus? The Gamecocks received a No. 7 seed in the East Region and will face 10th-seeded Marquette in Greenville.
That South Carolina (22-10) is a No. 7 seed is surprising considering the Gamecocks have lost six of their last nine games and hadn’t accomplished anything especially remarkable even before that. The only three NCAA tournament teams they’ve beaten are Michigan, Florida and Vermont, all at home.
BracketMatrix.com, which combines dozens of prominent mock brackets from across the web, projected South Carolina as one of the final No. 9 seeds after the Gamecocks lost their opening SEC tournament game. Oddly, the committee had a different view of it.
What it got right: The regions are balanced.
Some NCAA tournaments, it feels like half the national title-caliber teams in the field wind up in the same region. That’s not the case this year.
Every region possesses four AP Top 16 teams, a sign of the balance on this bracket. Every region also has three of the 12 teams VegasInsider.com gives the best odds of winning a national title next month.
You can quibble with having No. 1 overall seed Villanova in the same region with a Duke team some believed was worthy of a No. 1 seed as well. You can also argue that the West is slightly weaker than the other regions with Gonzaga, Arizona, Florida State and West Virginia as its top four seeds.
But all in all, this was largely a fair bracket from a big picture standpoint. Give the committee credit for navigating the bracketing principles and still managing not to overload any one region this year.
What it got wrong: Seeding The Big Ten
Wisconsin (25-9) finished tied for second in the Big Ten, swept two games against Minnesota and advanced to the title game of the league’s conference tournament.
Minnesota (24-9) finished fourth in the Big Ten, had one fewer RPI top 100 win than Wisconsin and fell in the Big Ten semifinals.
Somehow, someway, the committee gave the Gophers a No. 5 seed in the South and the Badgers a No. 8 seed in the East.
Seeding Minnesota three lines ahead of Wisconsin was the most egregious Big Ten mistake the committee made, but you could also make a case Michigan deserved a seed line better after its conference tournament title. A No. 7 seed against thoroughly underrated Oklahoma State team was a cruel fate for the surging Wolverines.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
