AccuScore: Don't count out Rays, Cards
AccuScore provides baseball predictions and projections by calculating the precise probability teams have of winning each game, their division, and making the playoffs. Using projected starting lineups, baseball predictions are created by simulating each game of the season, one play at a time, up to 10,000 to 20,000 times. Visit AccuScore for weekly updates for all baseball and sports predictions.
American League
The Angels picked up a game on the Rangers this week to remain alive in the AL West. The two rivals close the season with a three-game series so Anaheim needs to stay within three games in the standings before then. More realistically, the Angels want to be within one game so that a win in the series would force a playoff for the division title. Currently, they trail the Rangers by 2½ games. Simulations still give the Angels a 6.8 percent chance to make the postseason.
While the Angels were thought to be the last remaining team with a chance to break into playoff positioning in either league, this past week has changed that. Tampa Bay went 5-1 while Boston went just 1-6. That was enough to bring the Rays back into the race. They trail the Red Sox by 3½ games for the wild card and now have a 10.4 percent chance at the playoffs. Tampa had only a 1.4 percent chance a week ago. Boston's losing streak also gave the Yankees a serious leg up for the division title. New York is now 80.5 percent likely to win the AL East.
American League | Weekly Review | Playoff | % Chance | |
Team | 4-Sep | 11-Sep | % Diff | Win Div |
Detroit Tigers | 98.1% | 100.0% | 1.9% | 100.0% |
New York Yankees | 99.6% | 98.8% | -0.8% | 80.5% |
Texas Rangers | 95.3% | 93.4% | 2.0% | 93.3% |
Boston Red Sox | 99.6% | 90.6% | -9.0% | 18.7% |
Tampa Bay Rays | 0.8% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 0.8% |
Los Angeles Angels | 4.6% | 6.8% | 2.2% | 6.7% |
Seattle Mariners | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Minnesota Twins | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Cleveland Indians | 1.4% | 0.0% | -1.4% | 0.0% |
Oakland Athletics | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Chicago White Sox | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5% | 0.0% |
Kansas City Royals | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Baltimore Orioles | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Toronto Blue Jays | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
National League
Just three weeks ago, San Francisco was more than 40 percent likely to win the NL West. Now, the defending World Series champions are 8½ games behind Arizona and are just 0.1 percent likely to return to the postseason. Arizona has a 99.9 percent chance at the postseason, the same odds as Milwaukee. Philadelphia has already locked up a playoff spot. Atlanta is 97.7 percent to win the wild card with St. Louis laying claim to the final 2.3 percentage points.
National League | Weekly Review | Playoff | % Chance | |
Team | 4-Sep | 11-Sep | % Diff | Win Div |
Philadelphia Phillies | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 99.2% | 99.9% | 0.7% | 99.9% |
Milwaukee Brewers | 99.9% | 99.9% | 0.0% | 99.9% |
Atlanta Braves | 99.6% | 97.7% | -0.9% | 0.0% |
St. Louis Cardinals | 0.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
San Francisco Giants | 0.7% | 0.1% | -0.6% | 0.1% |
Houston Astros | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Florida Marlins | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Washington Nationals | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Colorado Rockies | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
New York Mets | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Cincinnati Reds | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Chicago Cubs | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
San Diego Padres | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
Other popular stories on Yahoo! Sports:
• Mystery flaw with Nike's college baseball bats
• Beaten Giants fan's staggering medical bill
• Doors' guitarist still dreams of Jim Morrison
