AccuScore: Believing in Seattle
AccuScore provides baseball predictions and projections by calculating the precise probability teams have of winning each game, their division and making the playoffs. Using projected starting lineups, baseball predictions are created by simulating each game of the season, one play at a time, up to 10,000 to 20,000 times. VisitAccuScore for weekly updates for all baseball and sports predictions.
American League
The calendar is marching toward July and Seattle is still hanging around. The Mariners aren't exactly winning games in bunches, but simply by staying above water they are staying in contention in the AL West. They are just a half-game behind the Rangers, and AccuScore predictions are starting to give them some credence. Seattle's playoff odds went up 8.9 percentage points this week while Texas' went down 12.3 percentage points. The Rangers still have the most talent in the division and are the clear favorites, but they have not been playing good baseball recently, allowing the Mariners to stay competitive.
Detroit is still the runaway favorite in the Central, winning in 81.7 percent of simulations despite a one-game deficit in the real standings. Cleveland took advantage of a favorable interleague matchup at just the right time, sweeping the Pirates. It had lost nine of its last 12 games before that. As a result of the fortuitous scheduling, the Indians made a small 3.2 percentage point bump this week. The big issue in the division though is Minnesota. The Twins have won seven games in a row and nine of their last 10, but are making the playoffs in just 0.6 percent of simulations. There are four teams ahead of them in the standings, but an eight-game deficit in June is not insurmountable. The simulation is a result of how poorly Minnesota had played in the first two months of the season.
Each week the monsters of baseball, Boston and New York, tighten their grip on the standings. Even against other quality teams, these two look a step superior on the field. The Yankees swept the Rangers, and the Red Sox took series against the Brewers and Rays. New York took a significant jump up to 85.4 percent likely to reach the playoffs despite having a relatively low 27.2 percent chance to win the AL East. Boston is the favorite to win the division, but the Yankees are the overwhelming favorite to win the wild card. Every year the sports experts pick these two teams to make the playoffs, and AccuScore agrees. The Rays are the real losers against these two making the biggest drop in the AL of 20.5 percentage points.
American League | Weekly Review | Playoff | % Chance | |
Team | 13-Jun | 19-Jun | % Diff | Win Div |
64.4% | 85.4% | 21.0% | 27.2% | |
6.3% | 15.2% | 8.9% | 14.6% | |
91.1% | 95.8% | 4.7% | 70.6% | |
16.2% | 19.4% | 3.2% | 16.8% | |
6.1% | 7.1% | 1.0% | 6.9% | |
0.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
0.9% | 0.5% | -0.4% | 0.0% | |
85.9% | 82.9% | -3.0% | 81.7% | |
4.2% | 1.0% | -3.2% | 0.9% | |
91.0% | 78.7% | -12.3% | 78.4% | |
33.8% | 13.3% | -20.5% | 2.2% | |
National League
Injuries are really starting to catch up to the Cardinals. St. Louis has been able to win plenty despite various injuries to both their hitters and pitchers. The latest injury might be the worst of them all depending on how long Albert Pujols(notes) is out with a forearm injury. The Cards dropped 10.7 percentage points this week with the Brewers gaining ground rapidly in the NL Central. Milwaukee jumped 9.5 percentage points and is winning the division in 56.2 percent of simulations. For now it looks like just a two-team race with Cincinnati reaching the playoffs just 6.8 percent of the time.
The biggest changes in the National League came out of the East. The Phillies are the closest thing to a lock, making the playoffs in 95.4 percent of simulations while gaining nearly 20 percentage points this week. This is a result of their main competition struggling to stay afloat. Florida has won just one game in June and is now predicted to make the playoffs just 0.1 percent of the time. The Braves, meanwhile, lost four games at home this week to teams like the Astros and Mets. The Braves made the biggest fall in baseball this week losing 30 percentage points in the projected playoff standings.
National League | Weekly Review | Playoff | % Chance | |
Team | 13-Jun | 19-Jun | % Diff | Win Div |
75.9% | 95.4% | 19.5% | 90.5% | |
67.2% | 76.7% | 9.5% | 56.2% | |
0.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 1.0% | |
2.3% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | |
50.4% | 54.3% | 3.9% | 50.5% | |
44.0% | 46.6% | 2.6% | 42.1% | |
5.4% | 7.6% | 2.2% | 6.6% | |
0.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
1.7% | 0.2% | -1.5% | 0.2% | |
3.0% | 0.6% | -2.4% | 0.6% | |
5.6% | 0.1% | -5.5% | 0.0% | |
78.7% | 68.0% | -10.7% | 41.3% | |
65.4% | 35.4% | -30.0% | 8.4% | |
