Over/Under: Will Michael Vick pound the pylons in 2012?
Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully normal. Gazing into the crystal ball here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders.
Michael Vick rushing touchdowns 5.5
Andy — UNDER, barely. If he plays a full 16 games, maybe he'll get there. But I'm not gonna bet on an injury-free season.
Brad — OVER. Vick claims he'll be more reserved but I'm not buying last year's one rush TD anomaly signaled the beginning of a trend. It's doubtful he plays 16 games, but even in 13 he barely eclipses the proposed number.
Brandon — UNDER. He's coming off a mere one rushing TD and although he's topped this number three times in his career, he's more often been a 1-3 rush TD guy in his career. He's always been more about the rushing yards than the rushing scores.
Week Tim Tebow supplants Mark Sanchez as the Jets starting quarterback 5.5.
Brad — UNDER. With a brutal early season schedule on tap including matchups at Pittsburgh and home against San Francisco and Houston, there's no way Sanchez survives the New York media onslaught if the Jets are well under .500. The Prodigal Son returns Week 5.
Brandon — OVER. Mark Sanchez has led this team to two AFC title games in his first three years and his QB rating has at least improved each season. He deserves as long a leash as Eli Manning, who didn't start to really turn things on until late in his fourth season.
Scott — UNDER. I expect it happens earlier than that, and ping-pongs back and forth. The Jets are doing all they can to sabotage Sanchez.
Dez Bryant final rank among wide receivers 12.5 (In other words, will he finish inside the WR top-12?).
Brandon — OVER/UNDER? Whatever answer that means he'll finish outside the top-12. He's talented, no doubt, but he has yet to show any consistency as a pro, and he's had just one game above 90 receiving yards in his career. With the WR position very top heavy and Dallas' O-line looking seriously suspect, I'm not buying Bryant that high.
Scott — OVER, as in, he doesn't make it. Too many flags.
Dalton — UNDER. Bryant will finish the season as a top-12 fantasy WR. Miles Austin's hammy is hurt again, Jason Witten is also sidelined, and Laurent Robinson is gone. Most importantly, Bryant has the talent to finish as a top-3 fantasy WR, and I'm willing to gamble on more maturity during his third year in the league.
Peyton Manning passing touchdowns 29.5.
Scott — That's a good number. I'll go UNDER, but even if he makes it, I don't see a major upside here. The name brand is tripping up some pundits.
Dalton — UNDER. Still questions about health and arm strength. Denver's schedule is also very tough.
Andy — OVER. Love his weapons, and I believe this passing game will gel quickly.
Chris Johnson total yards 1,799.5.
Dalton — I'm buying a Johnson bounce back season this year and would take him in the first round no problem. Having said that, taking the UNDER here is clearly the more probable outcome.
Andy — UNDER. That's just a huge number, one that requires so many things to go right. This won't be a run-first, run-second offense in the year ahead.
Brad — UNDER. I'm a firm believer CJ2LAME will have a bounce back effort after a soul-crushing 2011, but his expected 15-18 touch per game workload is a major roadblock. Believe he's more 1,400-1,500 total yard material.
Trent Richardson total touches (carries and receptions combined) 299.5.
Andy — OVER. I'm a believer. Also, there's no one behind him on the depth chart who deserves a significant role
Brad — UNDER. Coming off a second knee scope likely means Pat Shurmur and company will encase T-Pain in bubble wrap the first couple weeks of the regular season. He's still a high-end RB2, but 275-290 total touches are now more likely.
Brandon — UNDER The over was definitely the team's intention before TR's knee setback. Now they'll want to be more cautious and, if the Browns are as bad as they seem, they'll be even less motivated to use him heavily late in the season with nothing to play for but another high draft pick (Matt Barkley?).
Reggie Bush receptions 55.5.
Brad — OVER. Philbin's offense is tailored perfectly with Bush's versatile skill set. The plan is for the rusher to occasionally line up in the slot and even out wide to exploit matchups. Probably would've gone over at 65.5. He's a PPR dreamboat.
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Brandon — OVER. he nearly had that number last year and with new head coach Joe Philbin bringing an aerial emphasis to Miami, only an accumulation of DNPs will keep Bush from this number of receptions.
Scott — Every-so-slightly OVER. I like Bush in an Ibanez All-Star sort of way, a boring vet.
Rob Gronkowski touchdowns 12.5.
Brandon — UNDER. The stars aligned for Gronk with 17 TDs in '11. That's a hard pace to keep, especially with Aaron Hernandez figuring to get even more involved in '12 plus the addition of Brandon Lloyd, the No. 1 fantasy WR two years ago. I'm putting Gronk down for 12 scores.
Scott — I've got him scoring 11-12, so slightly UNDER. But Tom Brady's going to have a blast with those four superb targets.
Dalton — UNDER. Teammate Aaron Hernandez actually saw 10 more targets inside the 10 yard line last season than Gronkowski, and New England added Brandon Lloyd in the offseason. Pretty tough to bet on any receiver getting 13 touchdowns in a given year.
Michael Turner rushing yards 999.5.
Scott — He'll plod OVER that total, but won't make it to 1,150.
Dalton — Turner entered Week 17 last year with a modest 1,168 rushing yards (before destroying a terrible Bucs run D), and that was with him staying totally healthy. He's 30 years old and has more than 300 carries in three of the past four seasons. I'm taking the UNDER.
Andy — Hmm. I'll say UNDER here, but I still think Turner can be a nice value. He'll get his usual double-digit TDs. The man ran well last year, even though the experts are burying him.
Robert Griffin III total touchdowns (passing and rushing) 28.5.
Dalton — Again, the under is definitely the favorite, but it's no fun backing that in all my props, so I'll buy into the hype and go OVER. While the division is littered with solid defenses, those teams' offenses are even better, so there should be plenty of shootouts in the NFC East. Counting on at least five rushing scores for this to happen though.
Andy — So close, but I'll take the UNDER. If he throws for 22 and runs for five, that's a huge year historically, by rookie standards.
Brad — OVER. Fantasy owners got a taste of what RGIII is capable of in his preseason debut against Buffalo. He's insanely accurate, cunning, crafty and the consummate leader. Bank on him throwing for 24-25 scores chipping in an additional 5-6 on the ground.
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