This Pharma Company Is Leading The Race For A Zika Vaccine
Sometimes, you'd think that the worst diseases to threaten mankind come from tropical environments. They do.
AIDS came from sub equatorial Africa, as did the Ebola virus. Malaria, tropical. Yellow fever, for which there is no cure or vaccine, tropical. Now the Zika virus which, like Malaria and Yellow Fever, is mosquito borne. With multiple cases and one death being reported in the continental United States, it's becoming a major public health concern, specifically due to the threat it poses to pregnant women. The babies of pregnant women infected with the virus face the risk of a birth defect known as microcephaly or a smaller-than-normal skull which can lead to developmental disabilities, brain damage and death.
There has been a speculative run up in a handful of biotech companies working on vaccines or treatment. But I've been buying shares of a large cap, deeply discounted global pharmaceutical giant who is currently working with the U.S. Army to develop a Zika vaccine that should be ready for human trials by October of this year. You should, too.
Sanofi (NYSE: SNY), isn't exactly a household name when compared to peers such as Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) or Merck (NYSE: MRK), but with a $102 billion market cap, the French company is ranked as one of the largest drug makers in the world.
The firm is best known for blood clot prevention drug Plavix, marketed in the United States by Bristol Myers (NYSE: BMY), Lantus, the highest selling insulin in the United States, and the widely used chemotherapy drug Taxotere. Other products include the globally distributed insomnia treatment Ambien, the antihistamine Allegra as well as a host of vaccine products for polio, HPV, and influenza. So while Sanofi's emerging Zika vaccine may be the headline grabber, the company comes to the table with strong drug franchises.
[More from StreetAuthority.com: Is This Aging Blue Chip A Bargain Or A Trap?]
But despite Sanofi's muscular product portfolio, stock performance has been lack luster.
Year to date, the stock has performed worse than its broader peer group. The saving grace is a dividend yield more than twice that of the comparable ETFs. So what's the problem? Two words: revenue and earnings. 2015 revenues slid 14.5% to $38.6 billion from 2014's $45.2 billion. That translated into a 14% back up in earnings per share of $1.87 from $2.19 for the same period. Much of the softness can be blamed on weak diabetes and cardiovascular drug sales. And, since Sanofi is a French company, Euro currency weakness played a part as well. [More from StreetAuthority.com: Presidential Elections Don't Affect Markets As Much As You Think] However, the punishment appears to be a little overdone. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) for the first half of this year increased by 6% year over year, with forecasted EPS of $3.10 for the full year. That would translate into EPS growth of 65% over last year's results. Not a bad turnaround. Sanofi's balance sheet is in great shape as well, with long term debt to capitalization at a low 18%, annual cash flow of $8.8 billion and nearly $10 billion in cash on the books. The company is also exploring strategic alternatives for its animal health business, which grows at a steady rate of 13%. A spinoff or outright sale of the vet business would free up even more cash to plow back into research and development which, at the end of the day, is what drug companies are all about. Currently, Sanofi has 64 products in the pipeline in various phases of testing and plans to launch 13 new drugs by 2020. Risks To Consider: Like all big drug companies, Sanofi's biggest challenge is patent expiration. However, the company is in the generic drug business too. The company manufactures and markets a variety of generic drugs in France, Germany and the UK. [More from StreetAuthority.com: Why You Shouldn't Panic About Government Debt] The company also faces the risk of test failure of its pipeline products. But the sheer size of the current pipeline and its current strong product portfolio are a good defense. Action To Take: With the bad news behind it and strong underlying fundamentals, Sanofi shares are a great bargain at these levels. Successful product and revenue/earnings execution, the potential monetization of the animal health business and favorable macro trends in ageing and emerging markets will be more than enough catalyst to propel the stock price higher. At around $39, shares trade at a 25% discount to their 52 week high with a forward PE of 12.4 and a 4.1% dividend yield. An expansion of the PE to just 16, still a discount to Sanofi's peer group, would result in a 12- to 18- month price target of $50. That would be a total return of over 30% when factoring in the dividend. Editor's Note: Buried within all the campaign promises and character defamation that come with election season is one simple truth: no matter who takes office in January, the market is going to hit the skids. In fact, for 183 years, market freefalls have devastated the economy in the first two years of a new Presidency. Will these 3 investments break the 183-year curse? Disclosure: Adam Fischbaum owns shares of SNY in personal and managed client accounts. Related Articles |
