Forde's Fab Four: Ole Miss loss shakes up College Football Playoff bracket
Every week, I will play Selection Committee member, take a look at the College Football Playoff picture and offer my bracket as if today were Selection Sunday. Feel free to agree or disagree, starting with the latest development in Forde’s Fab Four: we are down to a single team from Mississippi for the first time in three weeks. But it’s really close.
No. 1 Mississippi State vs. No. 4 Auburn in the Sugar Bowl
Mississippi State did what it had to do in its first-ever appearance as the No. 1 team in the country – it won the game. The Bulldogs never trailed in beating Kentucky 45-31, but also never fully dominated. This was the first game all season State didn’t have a 20-point lead at any time, and the game wasn’t put away until a poorly executed Kentucky onside kick was run back 61 yards for a touchdown with 2:22 left. State coach Dan Mullen said he believed his team was tight in the first half and relaxed thereafter – but his secondary was too relaxed all afternoon, surrendering 390 passing yards to the Wildcats. Best wins, per Sagarin Ratings: No. 2 Auburn, No. 9 LSU, No. 15 Texas A&M. Losses: none. Stat: Mississippi State still has not been meaningfully threatened this year. It has trailed for a total of 2:49 all season. Next: Arkansas.
Auburn barely slides into the bracket in front of SEC West rivals Mississippi and Alabama. And Notre Dame, TCU, Kansas State and Michigan State. There is a glut of competition for the No. 4 spot at this point – and while much of it will sort itself out over the next month, the comparing and contrasting will be intense. Auburn gets the nod by virtue of having two quality victories (at Kansas State, over LSU big) and the best loss (Mississippi State on the road). Still, the Tigers had to sweat to beat South Carolina at home Saturday night, withstanding a Hail Mary pass into the end zone as time expired. The gambling Gamecocks converted five straight fourth downs at one point to keep the pressure on Auburn, but the Tigers responded to remain in the playoff picture entering a murderous November. Best wins, per Sagarin: No. 9 LSU, No. 11 Kansas State. Losses: at No. 4 Mississippi State. Stat: Auburn ran its home winning streak to 14 games, tying Florida State for longest active streak in the nation. Next: at Ole Miss, with Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama still to come.
No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Oregon in the Rose Bowl
The Seminoles moved another rung up the ladder while on a bye, and now stand as one of two unbeatens not named Marshall. Their path to the playoff is clearer than any other team’s – though, in this Fab Four bracket, FSU would be geographically disadvantaged as the higher seed having to travel thousands of miles West to play Oregon. Best wins, per Sagarin: No. 14 Notre Dame, No. 19 Clemson. Losses: none. Stat: Florida State’s rushing production has plummeted nearly 80 yards per game from last season, down from 203.1 yards per game (28th nationally) to 125.9 (104th). With more on his shoulders, quarterback Jameis Winston is throwing the ball eight times more per game than last year. Next: at Louisville on Thursday. If there is a losable game left on the schedule, this is probably the closest thing to it. That sputtering Seminoles running game now runs into the No. 1 rushing defense in the country.
Oregon rolled up 52 points in the first 38 minutes against California on Friday night, coasting in with an 18-point victory and further establishing itself as the Pac-12’s best team – and, with less unanimity, the nation’s top one-loss team for the moment. (That could easily change as the SEC West bloodbath unfolds.) Since being upset by Arizona, the Ducks have scored 42, 45 and 59 points in their last three outings, all double-digit victories. Best wins, per Sagarin: No. 12 Michigan State, No. 24 UCLA. Losses: No. 27 Arizona, at home. Next: hosts Stanford on Saturday. The Cardinal’s physical style has been Oregon’s nemesis the past two years, but this Stanford team is more error-prone (118th in turnover margin) and less productive offensively than those teams.
Dropped out: Mississippi.
Also considered: Mississippi, Alabama, TCU, Notre Dame, Kansas State, Michigan State, Georgia, Utah, Arizona State, Baylor, Arizona, Nebraska.
