NDP’s Rachel Notley running for opposition leader, not premier, says expert

The provincial election in Alberta is likely to bode well for the NDP, under the new leadership of party leader Rachel Notley, and the party could realistically set its sights on official opposition status.

The party’s prospects aren’t, technically, the best they’ve ever been. The NDP was the official opposition in Alberta in the mid-to-late eighties, says Duane Bratt, political science professor at Mount Royal University in Calgary, when they held the bulk of seats in Edmonton. This, he added, is what the party is looking at now.

Bratt expects they’ll do very well in Edmonton, likely picking up a seat in Lethbridge and maybe in Calgary as well, but shouldn’t expect to knock out Jim Prentice and the reign of the Progressive Conservatives.

“Given that they have a caucus of four, previously they had a caucus of two, going up to 10 or 12 or 14 seats would be dramatic for the NDP. They’re not about to form power,” Bratt says.

“Notley can talk about [how] she’s running for premier, [but] she’s really running for official opposition,” Bratt adds.

He notes that it’s a big deal any time a party can triple or quadruple their seat count. But, he says, they are dominant, or about to become dominant, in Edmonton again.

The NDP also seems to have its ship in better shape than other opposition parties, particularly the Liberals, running a full slate of candidates in this upcoming election. The Alberta Liberals are running with an interim leader, have only two incumbents running and aren’t putting forward a candidate in every riding, Bratt says.

The Wildrose Party was in dire straights a few months ago, when members of its caucus including leader Danielle Smith defected to the PCs, but has bounced back a bit under the leadership of former Conservative MP Brian Jean. It’s strong in rural Alberta in particular; areas where the NDP isn’t, Bratt said.

Notley was crowned the leader of the provincial NDP last October, taking over from Brian Mason who is standing in the upcoming election as a regular NDP candidate. She’s been in politics since 2008, and has a long history with the party. Her father, Grant Notley, was a former NDP leader and MLA in the province, and well known figure in provincial political circles.

Earlier this week premier Jim Prentice announced the province would be heading to the ballot box on May 5, one year ahead of a fixed election date in 2016. The election call was no surprise, however; it had been expected by many to follow the province’s budget — set to put Alberta’s struggling economy back on track — tabled in March.