America Has A Major Shortage Of Truck Drivers, And Something Is Coming That Will Make It Even Worse

America is facing a shortage of truck drivers, and that problem is expected to get worse.

The current shortage is estimated to be at 30,000, and a new regulation will help drive that higher.

A mandate requiring commercial vehicles to have an electronic logging device is likely go into effect in early 2015. This will make it harder for drivers to fudge the numbers and work more than the legally mandated limit on hours.

Right now 75% of the industry does not have these logging devices. Analysts expect 100% compliance within a year or two of the rule going into effect.

"Anecdotal comments have suggested that drivers will go to carriers that essentially, turn the eye if you will, at the hours of service regulation, because of manual logs," Brad Delco, an analyst at Stephens, told Business Insider in a telephone interview. "As a result they can essentially make more money, running more miles."

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) conducted three million driver inspections in 2012 and found 950,000 violations. Of these, 450,000 were hours-of-service violations.

"In our view, drivers are motivated to drive as many miles as possible, as driver pay is based on a 'per/mile' pay scale," Delco and Ben Hearnsberger at Stephens write in a note. "As a result, we believe carriers without ELDs have an advantage in recruiting/retaining drivers as less strict adherence to HOS regulations equates to higher driver pay and therefore helps attract/retain more drivers."

The American Trucking Associations expects the estimated U.S. shortage of 30,000 to surge to 239,000 by 2022.

Driver Churn Will, However, Decline