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Jeb Bush will raise a bundle of money. Here’s where it will come from

It’s no secret that Jeb Bush will rake in hundreds of millions of dollars now that he's officially running for president as a Republican. By some estimates, Bush’s haul could hit a record $500 million this year alone, most of it donated through a so-called super PAC called Right to Rise that can accept unlimited amounts from rich donors.

But Bush’s success as a candidate may depend on two money issues beyond his control. First, other Republicans may be able to raise enough cash of their own to battle Bush deep into next year’s primary elections and leave him bruised if he does emerge as the GOP nominee. And second, Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton could match or even better Bush in fundraising, plus she faces much lighter opposition in the Democratic primaries and can keep most of her powder dry for the general election.

The Republicans most likely to keep up with Bush in the primaries are Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Walker has become a surprise fundraising dynamo whose anti-union crusade in Wisconsin has drawn the attention of conservative megadonors such as Charles and David Koch and Sheldon Adelson. Rubio is a charismatic rising star who has won the support of billionaires such as Larry Ellison of Oracle (ORCL), Florida car-dealer Norman Braman and sugar baron Pepe Fanjul. A few rich funders such as those can keep a campaign going long after its natural expiration date.

Clinton’s fundraising effort is off to a slow start, but she's likely to raise hundreds of millions of dollars through the network of everybody-who’s-anybody she and her husband Bill have cultivated for decades. If the general election comes down to Bush v. Clinton, as many analysts expect, Bush will rely heavily on these top sources of funding:

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Big finance. Some of the biggest names in money are backing Bush. Financiers Henry Kravis of investing firm KKR, David McCormick (a former Treasury Dept. under secretary) and Richard Breeden (former Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission) have hosted East Coast fundraisers for Bush this year, according to the Sunlight Foundation, which tracks fundraising events. At least one of those sought a minimum of $100,000 per attendee. Richard Fisher and John Donahue of Federated Investors in Pittsburgh are longtime Bush family supporters. Byron Trott—Warren Buffett’s investment banker—held a Chicago fundraiser for Bush in May. On the West Coast, Los Angeles investment managers Brad Freeman and Ric Kayne are key Bush fundraisers. Bush can count on top finance professionals in virtually every big U.S. city.

Jeb Bush speaks at the Economic Council in Berlin (AP Photo/Michael Sohn)
Jeb Bush speaks at the Economic Council in Berlin (AP Photo/Michael Sohn)

Big business. It’s nothing new for business executives to line up behind Republicans, but Bush’s pro-business policies garnered support from corporations nationwide even when he was governor of Florida from 1999 to 2007. Much of Bush’s campaign money as governor came from the Florida Republican Party. And the big donors to the party during that time, according to the National Institute on Money in State Politics, included Walmart (WMT), AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), Pfizer (PFE), Anheuser Busch (BUD), Walt Disney (DIS), Citigroup (C), Lockheed Martin (LMT) and many Florida companies. Bush seems likely to haul in the lion’s share of donations big companies and their executives make during this election, as his Republican predecessor Mitt Romney did in 2012.

Bay Area investors. Venture capitalists Bill Draper and Jay Kern have held San Francisco fundraisers for Bush, as has investor Bill Oberndorf. Candidates from both parties are competing hard for Silicon Valley money, with many tech billionaires still uncommitted. One thing Bush has in his favor: He supports immigration reform that would let in more foreigners, something tech firms say would help them tap new sources of talent.

Craig and Susan McCaw. The cellphone pioneer and his wife are key Bush fundraisers in Seattle, where the price of entry to an event featuring Bush was as high as $25,000 earlier this year.

Washington power brokers. Bush obviously has access to DC’s Republican elite through the two other presidents in the family, his brother George W. and his father George H. W. Among those attending one DC fundraiser earlier this year were superlawyers C. Boyden Gray, Iggy Sanchez of DLA Piper, Ty Cobb of Hogan Lovells and David Aufhauser of Williams & Connolly. While not household names, such donors are able to pass the hat for Bush at some of the nation’s most prosperous law firms.

Henry Kissinger. The foreign-policy grayhair is 92—and has never been much of a political donor—but his endorsement of Bush earlier this year is a signal to old-school Republicans to get on board with Bush.

T. Boone Pickens. The Texas oilman could support home-state candidates Rick Perry or Ted Cruz, but instead he helped host a Bush fundraiser in Dallas in March. Pickens writes a lot of checks for politicians, including some big ones. In 2012, for instance, he gave $1 million to American Crossroads, the Republican super PAC that aired ads opposing President Obama and other Democrats.

Woody Johnson. The New York Jets owner and heir to the Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) fortune is a key Republican figure who helped Mitt Romney raise millions in 2012. He signed on with Bush earlier this year, ending speculation that he might help Gov. Chris Christie of neighboring New Jersey wage a dark-horse campaign. Christie’s vocal enthusiasm for the Dallas Cowboys probably didn’t help.

Rich Floridians. There’s nearly as much money in Florida as there is sunshine, and Bush knows where to find it. Top backers include private-equity whiz Mike Fernandez of Coral Gables, Republican fundraiser extraordinaire Mel Sembler, Fiserv co-founder Les Muma, Tom James of the Raymond James financial firm, St. Petersburg businessman James MacDougald, Ashley Furniture founder Ron Wanek, and Carol Jenkins Barnett, the billionaire daughter of the man who founded the Publix supermarket chain. All politics might be local, but Bush will be aiming to prove that his prowess as a fundraiser in Florida can be a national advantage, too.

Correction: This story was updated on June 10, 2015 to indicate that Paul Singer of Elliott Management has hosted "roundtable events" for Jeb Bush but not fundraisers.

Rick Newman’s latest book is Liberty for All: A Manifesto for Reclaiming Financial and Political Freedom. Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman.

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