Is the market close to 'topping out'?

U.S. stocks finished the month of May up 1% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and 2.6% for the Nasdaq Composite, despite recent unimpressive economic data and wild volatility in global bond markets. Stocks are within striking distance of highs, and the market has been resilient. But is the market close to “topping out”?

“There are problems with regards to fewer stocks hitting new high territory and ongoing divergences in momentum that typically do occur potentially when the market’s about to peak out,” said Mark Newton, Chief Technical Analyst and Partner at Greywolf Execution Partners. “But we just haven’t seen really any signs of price deterioration that would merit any concern.”

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Newton further noted that U.S. stocks haven’t shown much evidence of turning down just yet, and that the trading range of the past five months has been tighter and less volatile than most five-month periods going back three decades. Because of this, he said, "many are clamoring to attempt to call for [the] 'spring top' in the market," he wrote in a recent note.

Newton points to the financial and technology sectors as areas of strength, and were the second and third best performing sectors in May. “If you look at financials, that’s one group in particular that as… yields start to rise, really should benefit. And that’s important because financials represent about 16 – 17% of the market cap of the S&P. Technology has also been an area that’s benefited recently,” he said. “Conversely you have sectors like utilities and a lot of the interest rate sensitive sectors that have underperformed.”

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