Here’s what to watch in the markets today as a truncated market week ends...

What would you pay for a business in a stalled economy with sagging profits?

Use all the fancy charts and quantitative models you like, but that is the core question investors are facing today in U.S. stocks. And based on the choppy, low-conviction character of trading this week and most of this year, the answer is far from clear.

Like a badly coached NBA team full of complacent veterans, the American economy again ignored the strong game plan and came out lethargic in the first quarter. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow index, meant to predict GDP in real time, is now implying zero growth in the U.S. economy for the first quarter, down from 1.9% two months ago.

Aggregate profits for U.S. companies are forecast to have dropped last quarter for the first period since 2009. Yet cheap money, high liquidity, corporate deals and buybacks have kept things supported not far from all-time highs.

Which is why the stock market is basically where it was on New Year’s Eve. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) finished Wednesday at 2059 – one point above the Dec. 31 close. On sixteen trading sessions this year – more than a quarter of all days – the index has crossed the line between being up and down year to date.

So when you hear people say that the market has been volatile lately, you need to have them define the term. It’s been jumpy within a pretty tight range, with plenty of air pockets and sudden spurts higher mixed in. Mostly, watching this market offers the kind of suspense that comes from watching a sloppily played game that’s tied, with neither team able to take advantage of the others’ mistakes.

But there haven’t been sustained, extreme moves. Which is why the classic measure of current and expected market mood – the VIX (^VIX) – has been stuck in neutral. This volatility index is near 15, a pretty neutral level.

A neutral state heading into a monthly employment report tomorrow can mean we’re possibly – possibly – about to get some enduring direction to the trading trend.

Forecasts for job growth have been edging lower, and the number will hit with only limited ability for investors to react: While the major financial markets are closed for Good Friday, stock-index futures will be open for trading for 45 minutes after the 8:30 am Eastern-time release. A weak payroll number that affirmatively removes the chance of a June Federal Reserve rate hike from the table might be reflexively celebrated, but wage growth is the thing that is more likely to drive policy and investor sentiment.

As traders tighten up positions ahead of the number, a couple of things to watch in particular: The interplay of the dollar and stocks might be changing.

Roughly speaking, a rising dollar has been a headwind for stocks this year. But in the past three weeks, the WSJ dollar index has backed off a couple of percent, yet the S&P 500 hasn’t been able to make much headway. This could mean that the relationship here is changing, just as earlier stocks stopped trading dollar for dollar with oil prices once the velocity of the oil collapse slowed.

And, once again, monitor the trading in Micron Technology Inc. (MU), which delivered an earnings beat last night but muted guidance. The stock was looking to back off further, and could offer one small clue about how investors will treat mixed messages on corporate results in the coming week.